By Ian Sample, The Guardian
A "perfect storm" of
food shortages, scarce water and insufficient energy resources threaten to
unleash public unrest, cross-border conflicts and mass migration as people flee
from the worst-affected regions, the UK government's chief scientist will warn
tomorrow.
In a major speech to
environmental groups and politicians, Professor John Beddington, who took up
the position of chief scientific adviser last year, will say that the world is
heading for major upheavals which are due to come to a head in 2030.
He will tell the government's
Sustainable Development UK conference in Westminster that the growing
population and success in alleviating poverty in developing countries will
trigger a surge in demand for food, water and energy over the next two decades,
at a time when governments must also make major progress in combating climate
change.
"We head into a perfect
storm in 2030, because all of these things are operating on the same time
frame," Beddington told the Guardian.
"If we don't address this,
we can expect major destabilisation, an increase in rioting and potentially
significant problems with international migration, as people move out to avoid
food and water shortages," he added.
Food prices for major crops such
as wheat and maize have recently settled after a sharp rise last year when
production failed to keep up with demand. But according to Beddington, global
food reserves are so low--at 14% of annual consumption--a major drought or
flood could see prices rapidly escalate again. The majority of the food reserve
is grain that is in transit between shipping ports, he said.
"Our food reserves are at a
50-year low, but by 2030 we need to be producing 50% more food. At the same
time, we will need 50% more energy, and 30% more fresh water.
"There are dramatic
problems out there, particularly with water and food, but energy also, and they
are all intimately connected," Beddington said. "You can't think
about dealing with one without considering the others. We must deal with all of
these together."
Before taking over from Sir
David King as chief scientist last year, Beddington was professor of applied
population biology at Imperial College London. He is an expert on the
sustainable use of renewable resources.
In Britain, a global food
shortage would drive up import costs and make food more expensive. Some parts
of the country are predicted to become less able to grow crops as higher
temperatures become the norm. Most climate models suggest the south-east of
England will be especially vulnerable to water shortages, particularly in the
summer.
The speech will add to pressure
on governments following last week's climate change conference in Copenhagen, where
scientists warned that the impact of global warming has been substantially
underestimated by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The
latest research suggests that sea level rises, glacier melting and the risk of
forest fires are at, or beyond, what was considered the worst case scenario in
2007.
Beddington said a major
technological push is needed to develop renewable energy supplies, boost crop
yields and better utilise existing water supplies.
Looming water shortages in China
have prompted officials to build 59 new reservoirs to catch meltwater from
mountain glaciers, which will be circulated into the water supply.
